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• Craps No Pass Line Strategy
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Craps No Pass Line Strategy

Pass / Come Free Odds Bet. This is the most powerful bet in all of craps. In order to play the free odds bet, you must have wagered on the pass line bet or the come bet. If the shooter has not rolled a craps number (2, 3, or 12) or a 7 or 11, then there must be a point number established (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10). Answer 1 of 15: Here my situation, and I am looking for opinions: I always play $5 pass line with double odds. This is the only wager I play. After about 1 hr. Or so I am usually ahead about $75-$100 profit. This seems to work about 95% of the time I play.

Thanks in advance for those that take the time to help with this.
I was reading through some of the Wizard's answers to questions and have read some of the other threads about how taking full odds against your pass/don't pass will not change the amount of money a player will lose, but it mentions the reduction of the house edge.
Taken from the website:
'Hi, if person A makes 1000 consecutive bets on the pass line without backing up his bet, and person B makes 1000 consecutive bets on the pass line and he takes 100X odds whenever possible, doesn’t each person lose the same amount of money?
BLAKE HAAS FROM THOUSAND OAKS
Yes. I can just imagine the follow up question to be why I recommend taking the odds if doing so doesn’t help to win more. What I suggest is betting less on the pass so that your need for action is mostly met by a full odds bet. For example if you are comfortable betting about $90 per bet, and the casino allows 5x odds, then I would drop the pass line bet to $15 and bet $75 on the odds. That will lower the overall house edge from 1.414% to 0.326%.'
This is my confusion. As mentioned in other threads, the free odds has a 0% house edge and therefore the only money affected as far as house edge goes is the pass line (for example) at 1.41%. However, the Wizard stated that the house edge was lowered from 1.41% to .32%.
Does this mean that when we calculate the Theoretical Win (defined: Handle x House Edge (or Time Played x Avg bet x Decisions per Hour) x H/E) for the example from the quote, that the casino uses the adjusted .32% or the original 1.41%?
The obvious implication would be an expected loss of revenue on the craps table due to the lowering of the house edge. And subsequently, does offering greater odds actually decrease the amount of revenue the casino can make from the pass line bet?

Essentially, it's like taking 500ml of eggnog that has 500 calories, adding 500ml of water to it, and saying now it has fewer calories because it used to be 1 calorie per 1 ml but now it's 0.5 calories per 1 ml.
The house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%. Doesn't matter if you have 2x odds, 10x odds, or 100x odds. That pass line bet still has a 1.41% HE. The odds bet, similarly, is always going to be 0%.*

IME, when rating players, a casino is going to use a 'blended theo', which means they don't track which bets you make, just how much you're betting. They figure for every $1,000 on the table, some is going to be on pass line, some place bets, and other money on center action, and they may conclude the average or blended theoretical is (just pulling out a random number) 4%. So they'll just assign everything you bet to have a 4% theoretical loss (assuming 4% is the number they come up with).
The exception, of course, is the odds bet. That differs. Some casinos will rate your odds and some won't. Even at the same casino, some floormen will rate your odds and others won't. If at both casinos you always bet $10 pass with $50 odds, one casino might rate you as having $10 average bet while the other may rate you as having a $60 average bet.

Essentially, it's like taking 500ml of eggnog that has 500 calories, adding 500ml of water to it, and saying now it has fewer calories because it used to be 1 calorie per 1 ml but now it's 0.5 calories per 1 ml.
The house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%. Doesn't matter if you have 2x odds, 10x odds, or 100x odds. That pass line bet still has a 1.41% HE. The odds bet, similarly, is always going to be 0%.*

This is where I was leaning as well. However, if the HE truly doesn't change, why does he even mention it or state that it gets lower? Doesn't that just create confusion?

IME, when rating players, a casino is going to use a 'blended theo', which means they don't track which bets you make, just how much you're betting. They figure for every $1,000 on the table, some is going to be on pass line, some place bets, and other money on center action, and they may conclude the average or blended theoretical is (just pulling out a random number) 4%. So they'll just assign everything you bet to have a 4% theoretical loss (assuming 4% is the number they come up with).
The exception, of course, is the odds bet. That differs. Some casinos will rate your odds and some won't. Even at the same casino, some floormen will rate your odds and others won't. If at both casinos you always bet $10 pass with $50 odds, one casino might rate you as having $10 average bet while the other may rate you as having a $60 average bet.

This is a great example for how casinos lose money in promotions to players. If the odds bets are not generating revenue (due to having no HE) but are still being applied to the player's average bet against the 'blended theo', then the player is being rated as more worth than they actually are. The correct course of action would be to not include odds bets in average bet calculations in player ratings.RS

This is where I was leaning as well. However, if the HE truly doesn't change, why does he even mention it or state that it gets lower? Doesn't that just create confusion?

Yes it causes confusion. But I guess a reason to mention it is, if say, someone wants to bet $100 on the passline....they'd be better off to bet $20 on the pass with $80 in odds, for instance. So you've gone from 1.41% of $100 which is $1.41 to 1.41% of $20 which is $0.282....but in both cases, you get the same amount of action (roughly speaking, since you don't have that $100 in action on every roll, only once a point is established), but the latter has a lower expected loss than the former.

This is a great example for how casinos lose money in promotions to players. If the odds bets are not generating revenue (due to having no HE) but are still being applied to the player's average bet against the 'blended theo', then the player is being rated as more worth than they actually are. The correct course of action would be to not include odds bets in average bet calculations in player ratings.

Yes, the player would be rated as having a higher rated theo than he really should. I don't really have an answer to that, or a better way to do it, other than having a floor person note how much each player has on each different type of bet.....which isn't feasible. As far as why they may rate odds, I really don't know. The only thing I can possibly think of is because people like being rated for a higher amount (and, thus, would be unhappy if they got rated on 'only' their pass-line bet). Casinos don't always make the best decisions and sometimes it may be along the line of, 'Yeah...it's not the right way to do it, but it's a whole hell of a lot easier, and it's all going to average out anyway. Some may get a benefit while others get a bit shorted, but whatever'.Thanks for your replies and help!

Yes, the player would be rated as having a higher rated theo than he really should. I don't really have an answer to that, or a better way to do it, other than having a floor person note how much each player has on each different type of bet.....which isn't feasible. As far as why they may rate odds, I really don't know. The only thing I can possibly think of is because people like being rated for a higher amount (and, thus, would be unhappy if they got rated on 'only' their pass-line bet). Casinos don't always make the best decisions and sometimes it may be along the line of, 's not the right way to do it, but it's a whole hell of a lot easier, and it's all going to average out anyway. Some may get a benefit while others get a bit shorted, but whatever'.

We do it because it would cause a skewed representation of the player's actual worth to the casino. Most promotions utilize the theo in some way in their decision making process when giving back points because they are after all literally giving back a percentage portion of their revenue they just earned as a thank you. Most casinos may opt to reinvest 25% of the revenue earned from the player back into that player in various forms, whether it be in points, comps, mailers, etc.
Due to high variation of bets and different HE's on the craps table, the casino should have a rating system that encompasses slow, medium, and fast pace along with low, med, high action... a player playing the props would be more profitable than a player just playing the pass line and game pace affects decisions per hour. However, as you stated, most casinos find it too difficult for their boxpersons to rate players and watch the game and usually just assign a single blended theo. This means a low profit player gets more in promos than they deserve and the high profit players get less in promos than they deserve. It's a flaw that TG management should fix if they have it.

Yes it causes confusion. But I guess a reason to mention it is, if say, someone wants to bet $100 on the ey'd be better off to bet $20 on the pass with $80 in odds, for instance. So you've gone from 1.41% of $100 which is $1.41 to 1.41% of $20 which is $0.282....but in both cases, you get the same amount of action (roughly speaking, since you don't have that $100 in action on every roll, only once a point is established), but the latter has a lower expected loss than the former.

What you've described is how much theo the casino is making off the pass line. Basically betting the entire amount or just $20 of it because literally whatever you place behind doesn't matter. But it has to right? Otherwise, Michael never would have specifically stated it lowered the house edge. So then, why is he stating the house edge is lowered from 1.41% to .32%? No one on the forums has yet to answer or explain well why he stated it is lowered to that. They just keep saying that the house edge stays 1.41%. Is anyone able to show the math that makes it fall to .32% like Michael stated?odiousgambitmany parts of the old wizard of odds dot com are hard to find now
for craps, you want to add '/basics' to the url that is connected to that link seen there now to get:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/
for how to figure the HE on line bets combined with odds,

Combined Pass and Buying Odds
The player edge on the combined pass and buying odds is the average player gain divided by the average player bet. The gain on the pass line is always -7/495 and the gain on the odds is always 0. The expected bet depends on what multiple of odds you are allowed. Lets assume full double odds, or that the pass line bet is $2, the odds bet on a 4, 5, 9, and 10 is $4, and the odds on a 6 or 8 is $5.
The average gain is -2×(7/495) = -14/495.
The average bet is 2 + (3/36)×4 + (4/36)×4 + (5/36)×5 + (5/36)×5 + (4/36)×4 + (3/36)×4] =
2 + 106/36 = 178/36
The player edge is (-14/495)/(178/36) = -0.572%.
The general formula if you can take x times odds on the 6 and 8, y times on the 5 and 9, and z times on the 4 and 10 is (-7 / 495) / [ 1 + ((5x + 4y + 3z) / 18) ]

see last para and see if you can figure it out for the one you are referring to
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/DeMangoJust ignore the bad good advice. RoR or volatility is what you need to worry about.BlackjackLover

I was reading through some of the Wizard's answers to questions and have read some of the other threads about how taking full odds against your pass/don't pass will not change the amount of money a player will lose, but it mentions the reduction of the house edge.

the Wizard answer of 'yes' is so wrong.

Craps Odds Betting

It is NOT how much actual money they lose, but the ratio of the net/total resolved wagers
will be very close to each other with more and more resolved wagers.
The Law of Large numbers at wikipedia
' the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.'
the Wizard also stating the house edge is lowered means it is a 'combined house edge' over the average bet between the flat bet and the odds bet.
I simulated this years ago and I know someone did even a larger sim than mine
I had 2 players at the SAME craps table, where
one makes a $5 pass line bet 1000 times, no odds
the other makes a $5 pass line bet 1000 times, and 100 times odds on every point established
(it should be very clear their average resolved wager COMBINED is way different)
this was then done 10,000 times and the data collected.
How many times did they both end up at the same amount of money after the 1000 wagers were completed?

now we added all the sessions together for each player
who lost way more actual money than the other?
or did they lose the same amount of money?
(over 1000 wagers done 10,000 times, should be easy to guess - 10 million bets for each player)

this shows clearly the Wizard answer of 'yes' in that Ask the Wizard is wrong.
my code is correct as I used the WinCraps risk of ruin code that is free at the website
(I also tested it to see if it was 100% accurate, and it is)
odds adds variance without adding to the -ev (that is good for the player)
we would need to show some math to explain this
but that is a total waste of time.
most all craps players believe what they want to believe
no more no less

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Casinos can be intimidating and their games a little confusing, but here's a tip: The best bet on the craps table has no house edge, and it isn't shown anywhere on the layout. There's no mention of 'odds' on the table. You must have a Pass or Don't Pass bet to take odds on, but then you're on your own. If you don't know about odds, you'll miss the best bet in the casino.

If you know how to play craps, you know that new shooters have to place a wager on the Pass or Don't Pass line. Once that new point of 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 is made, they can just keep shooting. The odds bet, the one that has zero house edge, isn't mandatory; it's optional.

The Pass Line always pays even money, but the real beauty of the Odds wager is that you are paid the true odds of the point rolling. To make the wager, simply place chips behind your original Pass Line bet on the craps layout. This wager can at least equal your Pass Line bet, so if you have an original wager of $10, put another $10 behind it to take odds. The amount you should wager depends on the point number.

If the point is 4, 5, 9, or 10, match your bet. If the point is 6 or 8, bet $6 in odds for every $5 you have on the Pass Line. When the shooter makes their point, you'll get a much bigger payoff.

Pass Line Odds Payoffs

If the point is:

• 4 or 10, you are paid 2 to 1 on your Odds wager.
• 5 or 9, you are paid 3 to 2 on your Odds wager.
• 6 or 8. you are paid 6 to 5 on your Odds wager.

Most casinos allow you to take double odds on you Pass Line bet. That means if you put $5 on the Pass Line, you could make an odds bet of $10.

Your Pass Line bet has a house edge of 1.41 percent. The Odds bet has no house edge, so by taking it you lower the house edge on your overall wagers. A Pass Line bet with single odds has a house edge of 0.85 percent and with double odds, the house edge drops to 0.61 percent.

Over the last few years, many casinos have allowed players to take larger odds bets. Some casinos compete with each other to see who can offer the highest odds, up to 100 times odds. Although this sounds great, it is impractical for average players to wager this much unless they have a very big bankroll.

3-4-5 Times Odds

To make things quick and easy for everyone, from the players to the dealers to the Box Men, many casinos have incorporated a simplified odds system in which they allow odds of only 3, 4, or 5 times a Pass Line wager. With this system, players are allowed to take three, four, or five times odds, depending on the point number. You can get odds on Come Bets too.

If the point is::

• 4 or 10 you can take 3 times odds.
• 5 or 9, you can take 4 times odds.
• 6 or 8, you can take 5 times odds.

Craps Odds Bets